Bulls, Heat set to battle in Miami

Basketball Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of teams battling for playoff spots in the Eastern Conference square off tonight at Miami's AmericanAirlines Arena, where the surging Heat continue an important homestand by taking on the slumping Chicago Bulls.

Although only 1 1/2 games separate these clubs in the East standings, the Heat and Bulls have been going in opposite directions as of late. Miami posted its fourth win in its last five outings with Wednesday's 108-97 verdict over the Los Angeles Clippers, while Chicago's current losing streak reached a season- worst six games in last night's 111-82 defeat at Orlando.

The Bulls' slide has dropped them into ninth place in the conference race, with the Heat tied with Toronto and Charlotte for the final three postseason berths at the moment.

Miami has an opportunity to enhance its playoff chances with a six-game home stretch that began with Wednesday's victory over the Clippers. The Heat have won their last four tilts as the host, improving to 18-14 at AmericanAirlines Arena for the season.

"We've been playing better at home," said Miami's Dwyane Wade after Wednesday's game. "That's what we all wish we would've done all year, but we can't live in the past."

Wade led the way against Los Angeles with 27 points and eight assists, with Jermaine O'Neal contributing 19 points and nine rebounds to the win and Michael Beasley adding 15 points for Miami.

Chicago's losing streak is its longest since a six-gamer from November 14-24, 2006. Injuries have played a large part in the team's recent nose dive, and the Bulls suffered another significant one when point guard Derrick Rose had to exit last night's contest after one quarter due to a sprained left wrist.

Rose, averaging a team-best 20.4 points and 5.7 assists per game this season, could very well join two other key Chicago players on the sidelines tonight. Luol Deng is expected to miss a second straight night because of a strained calf, while fellow forward Joakim Noah is out indefinitely with a plantar fasciitis injury to his left foot.

Deng is second on the team with an average of 18.0 points per game and Noah leads Chicago in rebounding (11.4 rpg).

Rookie James Johnson led shorthanded Chicago with 13 points in Thursday's defeat, with Hakim Warrick and Taj Gibson each finishing with 12 points on the night.

Having Rose potentially unavailable doesn't figure to help the Bulls improve upon a 12-20 road record for the season. Chicago will be playing the second test of a critical four-game trip that also includes stops in Memphis and Dallas.

The Bulls have also lost in four straight visits to Miami, including a 95-87 decision on November 1. Chicago did get a measure of revenge with a 95-91 win over the Heat in the Windy City on February 6, in which Deng scored 25 points and Rose netted 24.

Miami may possibly be without bench player Dorell Wright for tonight's matchup after the 24-year-old was arrested Thursday morning for driving under the influence and having a suspended license.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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