CFL East: Argos dig deep again; Als stay on top

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08/10/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a rematch of the epic season opener, the Montreal Alouettes and Saskatchewan Roughriders battled it out again in Week 6. Though the game had little chance to match the fireworks of a 54-51 double overtime Riders win in Week 1, the two teams still put on a brilliant show worthy of the two best in the league. Meanwhile, the Argos pulled off another late-game upset to move to 4-2.

MONTREAL ALOUETTES

The Als can thank their defense for getting through a tough second half against the Riders in Week 6.

Facing a determined Saskatchewan quarterback in Darian Durant, the defense made the big stops when it had to en route to the win.

Linebacker Chip Cox provided the key defensive play with an interception late in the fourth quarter, switching momentum permanently in favor of his Montreal squad.

Offensively the Alouettes struggled to get anything going over the final two quarters.

The Als proved they can win a gritty game when they have to, even if it's against as formidable an opponent as the Riders.

Offensive key to the next game (Toronto Argonauts): The Als have so many weapons at their disposal they could blindfold themselves, spin around in a circle, and randomly point at a player and have him dominate. In Week 5, Avon Cobourne was the weapon. This time around, after the Argos study game film from two weeks ago, it will most likely be someone else.

Defensive key to the next game: Just like in its last meeting, Montreal must stop Cory Boyd, who has been one of the league's best players over the first third of the season.

Look ahead: With the way Montreal has played this season, combined with its recent history of winning records, it's hard to believe the Alouettes finishing anywhere other than first in the East. Wins against Toronto and Winnipeg in consecutive weeks will help confirm that belief.

TORONTO ARGONAUTS

What a way to celebrate a birthday.

Cory Boyd had three touchdowns against Edmonton last week, including a game- winning one-yard run in the waning seconds of the contest.

In a season full of surprises for the Argos, Boyd's emergence as not only the team's most important player but also one of the best in the CFL has to be the biggest.

Boyd's stellar play has also allowed Cleo Lemon to acclimate himself to the Canadian football brand at a more comfortable pace.

The former NFL QB looks better every week but, with Montreal on the horizon, he will have to skip a few steps in his development if he wants his team to get a win.

Offensive key to the next game (Montreal Alouettes): The Argos have lost twice, and both times were the only games Boyd failed to hit the century mark in rushing yards. Boyd ran for just 53 yards the last time he faced Montreal and unless Lemon breaks out with a tremendous performance, the running back will have to be lights out once again for the Argos to have a chance.

Defensive key to the next game: First and foremost, prevent Cobourne from amassing 200-plus combined yards of offense as he did in Week 5. Easier said than done, but the Argos need to do a better job anticipating when the Als will rush.

Look ahead: After Montreal, Toronto has a home-and-home series with the Tiger- Cats sandwiched around a bye week. Considering Hamilton is Toronto's biggest obstacle in maintaining second place in the East, these two games will be perhaps the most critical of the season.

HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

It took six weeks but the CFL's most accurate kicker finally made an impact.

Sandro DeAngelis went 3-for-3 on his field goal attempts, a vast improvement over the 58.3 percent he had heading into Week 6.

It's a big boost for the Ti-Cats and they can only hope DeAngelis will get back to the form he showed in his five previous seasons with Calgary, where he kicked to the tune of nearly 84 percent.

Stealing the show from DeAngelis, however, was another incredible performance from Arland Bruce. Coming off a record-tying 16 receptions in Week 5, Bruce was at it again against Winnipeg with 11 catches for 197 yards.

With Bruce playing at such an elite level, and DeAngelis kicking at his normal efficiency, the Ti-Cats can feel better about finishing the season with a roar rather than a purr.

Offensive key to the next game (Winnipeg Blue Bombers): It's unlikely that Bruce will record 200 yards receiving again, meaning other receivers will have to step up. Bruce and Stala have been the main recipients of Kevin Glenn's bombs, and it's time for the wealth to be shared, especially since DeAndra Cobb has yet to rush the ball with any consistency.

Defensive key to the next game: Strategy shouldn't change for the Ti-Cats in the second part of their home-and-home with the Bombers. The defense pressured quarterback Steve Jyles enough to get him off rhythm, including a crucial fumble in the late stages of Week 6 that led to Hamilton's winning touchdown. Pressure Jyles again and the Ti-Cats will control the game.

Look ahead: A win against Winnipeg would be a great stepping stone to a critical stage of the season: a home-and-home series with the Toronto Argonauts. Catching up to the boatmen is still a possibility. A split is the bare minimum of what they need to accomplish.

WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

Winnipeg was the only team to lose in Week 6 and now shares the worst record in the division with Hamilton at 2-4.

Jyles had the best game of his career, throwing for 367 yards with two touchdown passes. However, his penchant to run with the football led to two fumbles, one of which ultimately cost the Bombers the game.

Holding onto the football should be Jyles' primary focus if he wants to continue to think about running, though he showed improvement in his overall game so the Bombers can afford to feel some optimism.

Offensive key to the next game: While Jyles has to find a better grip on the football, he should also keep getting Arkee Whitlock touches. The running back needs to hit the 100-yard rushing mark if they want to exact revenge in Week 6.

Defensive key to the next game: It takes more than stopping Bruce from making huge catches to defeat the Ti-Cats. Last week, the Bombers managed to stop Bruce in the final quarter, but they couldn't maintain Stala in the process. With little contribution elsewhere among receivers, the focus should be on getting both Stala and Bruce under wraps.

Look ahead: Of the next three games, the match against Hamilton is by far its best chance of picking up a win. On either side of its bye in Week 8 are matchups against Montreal and Saskatchewan. Not a friendly schedule by any means, making this week's tilt against Hamilton even more important to stay within reach of a playoff spot.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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